Lancaster County, Virginia Hurricane History
Since 1856, 39 tropical cyclones have passed within 50 miles of Lancaster County, Virginia — about one every 4.4 years. Of those, 4 were at hurricane strength at their closest approach. The most recent was Elsa (2021), which passed 8 miles away on 9 July 2021.
Storm tracks within 50 miles
How strong they get
Key facts
- Most recentElsa (2021) — 8 mi away, 9 July 2021
- Strongest stormUnnamed Storm (1878) — 85 kt (98 mph) at its strongest within 50 miles
- Closest pass on recordUnnamed Storm (1872) — 2.2 miles
- Closest major hurricane (Cat 3+)None on record
- Passes within 25 miles18 of 39
- Peak monthSeptember — 17 storms (44% of all)
- Most active year2004 — 3 storms
- Most active decade1880s — 5 storms
- Major hurricanes (Cat 3+) within 50 mi0
- Record span1856–2021
When storms arrive
| J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O | N | D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Activity by decade
| 1850s | 1860s | 1870s | 1880s | 1890s | 1900s | 1910s | 1920s | 1930s | 1940s | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
Every tropical or subtropical cyclone within 50 miles
| Storm | Closest approach | Distance | Status | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elsa (2021) | 9 Jul 2021 | 7.5 mi | TS / TD | 48 kt |
| Isaias (2020) | 4 Aug 2020 | 21.2 mi | TS / TD | 60 kt |
| Ana (2015) | 11 May 2015 | 36.5 mi | TS / TD | 30 kt |
| Hanna (2008) | 6 Sep 2008 | 17.0 mi | TS / TD | 45 kt |
| Jeanne (2004) | 28 Sep 2004 | 34.4 mi | TS / TD | 25 kt |
| Ivan (2004) | 18 Sep 2004 | 38.2 mi | TS / TD | 20 kt |
| Gaston (2004) | 31 Aug 2004 | 25.3 mi | TS / TD | 35 kt |
| Floyd (1999) | 16 Sep 1999 | 46.8 mi | TS / TD | 63 kt |
| Bertha (1996) | 13 Jul 1996 | 4.3 mi | TS / TD | 60 kt |
| Dean (1983) | 30 Sep 1983 | 3.4 mi | TS / TD | 35 kt |
| Bret (1981) | 1 Jul 1981 | 8.4 mi | TS / TD | 28 kt |
| Bob (1979) | 15 Jul 1979 | 14.9 mi | TS / TD | 20 kt |
| Ginger (1971) | 3 Oct 1971 | 30.6 mi | TS / TD | 30 kt |
| Doria (1971) | 28 Aug 1971 | 31.4 mi | TS / TD | 52 kt |
| Camille (1969) | 20 Aug 1969 | 41.3 mi | TS / TD | 35 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1963) | 3 Jun 1963 | 18.6 mi | TS / TD | 43 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1961) | 14 Sep 1961 | 38.1 mi | TS / TD | 47 kt |
| Brenda (1960) | 30 Jul 1960 | 19.6 mi | TS / TD | 50 kt |
| Cindy (1959) | 10 Jul 1959 | 45.2 mi | TS / TD | 42 kt |
| Connie (1955) | 13 Aug 1955 | 11.6 mi | TS / TD | 60 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1944) | 2 Aug 1944 | 37.3 mi | TS / TD | 35 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1943) | 1 Oct 1943 | 28.9 mi | TS / TD | 52 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1934) | 3 Sep 1934 | 36.1 mi | TS / TD | 30 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1933) | 23 Aug 1933 | 21.2 mi | TS / TD | 63 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1904) | 15 Sep 1904 | 9.0 mi | TS / TD | 60 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1893) | 23 Oct 1893 | 49.9 mi | TS / TD | 45 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1889) | 25 Sep 1889 | 28.9 mi | TS / TD | 40 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1888) | 11 Sep 1888 | 15.9 mi | TS / TD | 35 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1886) | 2 Jul 1886 | 11.9 mi | TS / TD | 35 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1882) | 23 Sep 1882 | 34.3 mi | TS / TD | 40 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1882) | 11 Sep 1882 | 14.8 mi | TS / TD | 45 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1878) | 23 Oct 1878 | 41.6 mi | Cat 2 | 83 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1876) | 17 Sep 1876 | 49.3 mi | TS / TD | 62 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1874) | 29 Sep 1874 | 13.4 mi | TS / TD | 50 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1872) | 26 Oct 1872 | 2.2 mi | TS / TD | 40 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1863) | 18 Sep 1863 | 28.2 mi | TS / TD | 50 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1861) | 27 Sep 1861 | 35.4 mi | TS / TD | 60 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1859) | 17 Sep 1859 | 14.9 mi | TS / TD | 53 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1856) | 20 Aug 1856 | 43.7 mi | TS / TD | 50 kt |
Post-tropical and extratropical passes
A further 16 systems passed within 50 miles after losing tropical characteristics. These are excluded from the counts above because they were no longer tropical cyclones at their closest approach — but several were highly damaging, so they are listed here. Showing the 9 most recent.
| Storm | Status | Closest approach | Distance | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chantal (2025) | Remnant low | 7 Jul 2025 | 8.4 mi | 22 kt |
| Zeta (2020) | Post-tropical | 29 Oct 2020 | 46.5 mi | 45 kt |
| Nestor (2019) | Post-tropical | 20 Oct 2019 | 43.2 mi | 40 kt |
| Andrea (2013) | Post-tropical | 8 Jun 2013 | 24.1 mi | 40 kt |
| Ernesto (2006) | Post-tropical | 2 Sep 2006 | 20.3 mi | 40 kt |
| Gordon (2000) | Post-tropical | 19 Sep 2000 | 26.9 mi | 23 kt |
| Danny (1985) | Post-tropical | 19 Aug 1985 | 35.3 mi | 25 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1944) | Post-tropical | 21 Oct 1944 | 16.2 mi | 40 kt |
| Unnamed Storm (1924) | Post-tropical | 30 Sep 1924 | 30.6 mi | 64 kt |
How Lancaster County, Virginia compares
Among the 2,208 U.S. counties and county-equivalents that have recorded at least one tropical cyclone within 50 miles, Lancaster County, Virginia ranks #347 — more exposed than 84.3% of them. Within Virginia it ranks #21 of 133, against a state average of 23.5 storms per county.
Notable storms
- Cat 2 Unnamed Storm (1878) passed 42 miles away on 23 October 1878 as a hurricane, reaching 85 kt (98 mph) while within 50 miles.
- Cat 1 Unnamed Storm (1933) passed 21 miles away on 23 August 1933 as a hurricane, reaching 66 kt (76 mph) while within 50 miles.
- Cat 1 Connie (1955) passed 12 miles away on 13 August 1955 as a tropical storm, reaching 65 kt (75 mph) while within 50 miles.
- TS / TD Floyd (1999) passed 47 miles away on 16 September 1999 as a hurricane, reaching 63 kt (72 mph) while within 50 miles.
34 of the 39 storms made a documented landfall somewhere along their track.
How often to expect a storm
A return interval of 4.4 years does not mean storms arrive on a schedule. It is simply 39 storms spread over the 170 years from 1856 to 2025. 3 separate years saw more than one storm pass within 50 miles while decades have gone by with none. The longest recorded quiet stretch was 29 years, between 1904 and 1933. It has been 4 years since the last one; 11 of the 34 gaps in this record were longer than that.
Common questions
How many hurricanes have hit Lancaster County, Virginia?
4 tropical cyclones have passed within 50 miles of Lancaster County, Virginia at hurricane strength since 1856. Counting all tropical cyclones — including tropical storms and depressions — the total is 39.
When was the last hurricane in Lancaster County, Virginia?
Floyd (1999), on 16 September 1999, passing 47 miles away — 27 years ago. The most recent tropical cyclone of any strength was Elsa (2021) in 2021.
What was the strongest storm to affect Lancaster County, Virginia?
Unnamed Storm (1878), which reached 85 kt (98 mph) while within 50 miles; its closest approach was 42 miles.
How often do hurricanes hit Lancaster County, Virginia?
On average, one tropical cyclone passes within 50 miles every 4.4 years — 39 storms over the 170 years from 1856 to 2025, the end of the HURDAT2 record. That is a historical average, not a schedule or a forecast.
Nearby counties
Lancaster County, Virginia borders or sits close to 5 other counties with a published storm record. Middlesex County, Virginia has 41 on record.